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LOWER INVENTORY KEEPS HOME PRICES IN CHECK AS ‘SLOW BUT STEADY’ MARKET CONTINUES

(Surrey, BC) – In March, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,128 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), a 20 per cent decrease compared to the 1,412 sales during the same month last year, and a 24 per cent increase compared to February’s 913 sales.

The Board also received 11 per cent fewer new listings in March compared to last year – 2,736 compared to 3,066 – keeping inventory in check. March finished with 9,503 active listings, 1.5 per cent fewer than March of last year and 3.5 per cent fewer than the 9,832 available during March of 2009; the highest volume of active listings for that month in the last decade.

Ron Todson, President of the Board, explains, “Although we saw a typical spring uptick in activity from February to March, our sales remained at about 70 per cent of the norm for March and our new listings came in at 90 per cent of what the Board would typically receive.

“Because inventory levels are in check, prices are staying in check.”

In March, the benchmark price of single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley was $544,300, an increase of 0.6 per cent compared to $541,300 during the same month last year. For townhouses, the benchmark price was $298,200, a decrease of 1.7 per cent compared to $303,400 in March 2012 and the benchmark price of apartments was $204,200, an increase of 0.8 per cent compared to $202,500 in March 2012.

Todson adds, “Inventory levels are not as high as they need to be to put significant downward pressure on prices of the benchmark, or ‘typical’ home. These are homes that have characteristics most common to houses in a given community.

“In fact, we’re seeing the reverse happen. Benchmark prices for all three main property types in the Fraser Valley increased in value during the first quarter of 2013. Since January, detached homes are up by 1 per cent, townhomes by 0.6 per cent; and apartments by 2 per cent.”

Stats provided by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. For the full stats package please click here: 

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POSITIVE SIGNS FRASER VALLEY HOUSING MARKET IS STARTING TO MOVE

(Surrey, BC) – Sales on Fraser Valley’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in February experienced a typical ‘early spring’ surge, increasing by 48 per cent in one month going from 617 sales in January to 913 last month. However year-over-year, they reflect a decrease of 28 per cent compared to the 1,269 sales processed in February 2012. Since last September, home sales have idled at levels last seen in the early 2000s.

Based on February’s increase in activity, Ron Todson, President of the Board, is guardedly optimistic, “We’re seeing signals that the stand-off between buyers and sellers over the last six months is coming to an end.

“Business has picked up in the last month with increased traffic at open houses, sellers quicker to accept offers and homes selling on average two weeks faster than they did in January.”

Todson adds that tightening inventory has also had an effect, “When buyers see that their selection is diminishing they’re more motivated to act.” The Board posted 2,582 new listings last month, a decrease of 9 per cent compared to the 2,846 posted during February last year pushing the total number of active listings down by 1.6 per cent compared to 2012.

“As your REALTOR® will explain, each market is different. Right now, the market for detached homes is balanced in North Delta and Langley. The condo market is brisk in Abbotsford and Central Surrey and townhome sales are steady in North and Central Surrey as well as Cloverdale.

“One commonality amongst these areas and property types is greater affordability. What’s not doing well generally anywhere in the Fraser Valley is sales of higher-end homes unless they are priced competitively.”

In February, the benchmark price of single family detached homes in the Fraser Valley was $540,900, an increase of 0.7 per cent compared to $537,200 during the same month last year. For townhouses, the benchmark price was $296,700, a decrease of 1.3 per cent compared to $300,500 in February 2012 and the benchmark price of apartments was $202,500, an increase of 1.5 per cent compared to $199,500 in February 2012.

In February, it took on average 49 days to sell a detached home compared to 64 days in January. Townhomes took 60 days on average to sell compared to 72 days the month before and apartments spent an average of 66 days on the market in February compared to 83 days in January.

Provided by the FVREB. For a full stats package visit: http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201302.pdf

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HOME SALES SLOW TO NEAR HISTORIC LEVELS IN FRASER VALLEY AS BUYERS WATCH AND WAIT FROM SIDELINES

(Surrey, BC) – A total of 617 sales were processed through the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in January, a decrease of 23 per cent compared to 799 sales during the same month last year. January 2013 ranks as the second slowest for that month in the last thirteen years, second only to January 2009 during the global recession.

Scott Olson, president of the board, says there is a distinction between what REALTORS® saw four years ago compared to today. “People want to buy. We’re already seeing early signs of a typical spring market with more foot traffic at open houses and an increase in calls.

“Buyers have been holding off in hopes that prices will drop more, however it’s become clear that sellers are only willing to go so far. Prices for typical homes in the Fraser Valley have decreased by only two to three per cent in the last six months and in January we’re starting to see a reversal of that – in half of our communities prices have crept back up.”

Olson suspects the market stalemate may be coming to an end. “The number one reason people buy a home is a lifestyle decision – you need a bigger home, a smaller one, closer to work or school – so when the right home comes along you can only wait so long.

“With interest rates as low as they are, our local economy as strong as it is and prices so tenacious I think we’ll see the effects of this pent-up demand and a return to more balance in the market.”

In the last six months, prices for all three residential property types combined have decreased by 2.5 per cent while year over year they’re on par, showing an increase of 0.7 per cent. Of the three property types, prices of single family detached homes have been the most resilient, increasing 1.5 per cent in the last year going from $532,700 in January 2012 to $540,500 last month.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in January was $293,700, a decrease of 2.0 per cent compared to $299,800 during the same month last year. The benchmark price of apartments in Fraser Valley in January was $200,400, an increase of 1.2 per cent compared to $198,000 in January 2012.

REALTORS® added 2,643 new listings in January, 4 per cent fewer than the same month last year. This decreased the number of properties available in the Fraser Valley to 8,031, a decrease of 3.5 percent compared to January 2012. By historical comparison, January 2013 ranks as the third highest in terms of active listings in the last decade.

Stats provided by: The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board - is an association of 2,802 real estate professionals who live and work in the BC communities of North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Langley, Abbotsford, and Mission. The FVREB marked its 90-year anniversary in 2011.

Full package: http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201301.pdf

The 2013 predictions for Fraser Valley have changed since last fall, becoming more conservative. Muir still expects home sales to increase in 2013 compared to 2012, but not to the degree that his department anticipated three months ago. In addition, he's forecasting home prices will moderate at a slightly faster rate.

Fraser Valley REALTORS® can expect sales to increase by 2.4 per cent this year compared to 2012; and average MLS® prices will continue to slide 3.3 per cent this year on top of the 3.7 per cent reduction during 2012.

Muir states in the report, "Headwinds in the global economy continue to constrain growth in British Columbia. The US has yet to generate enough employment to take a serious bite out of their jobless rate, while early signs of burgeoning domestic demand in China weren't enough to keep economic growth from slipping to a ten-year low in 2012."

The forecast describes 2013 as a transition year to next year when sales are expected to rebound even further and prices will stabilize. In 2014, BCREA is predicting an increase of 7.5 per cent in Fraser Valley home sales and prices to remain flat (-0.6 per cent) compared to this year.

Muir describes lower home prices in the Fraser Valley as a move in a positive direction improving affordability and encouraging potential buyers back to the marketplace. "In addition, many potential buyers that stayed on the sidelines in 2012 will likely enter the marketplace over the next year as the relatively strong financial condition of BC households precludes any deflationary spiral."

For Greater Vancouver in 2013, Muir is forecasting slightly stronger sales than Fraser Valley, an increase of almost 10 per cent this year compared to 2012, and not quite as high reductions in MLS® home prices -2.2 per cent on average in 2013 and -0.3 per cent in 2014.

CMHC's Housing Market Outlook, released in the fall of 2012, anticipates sales in the Fraser Valley will increase by 1.4 per cent in 2013 compared to 2012, while prices remain relatively stable. CMHC only releases two forecasts per year — spring and fall — while BCREA releases quarterly.

Provided by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. Full the full BCREA report including graphs please follow this link: http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/news-and-publications/news-room/news-releases/housing-forecast-news-release

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.

The global economic outlook is slightly weaker than the Bank had projected in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).  At the same time, global tail risks have diminished. The economic expansion in the United States is continuing at a gradual pace, restrained by ongoing public and private deleveraging, global weakness and uncertainty related to fiscal negotiations.  Despite a marked improvement in peripheral sovereign debt markets, Europe remains in recession, with a somewhat more protracted downturn now expected than in October. Growth in China is improving, though economic activity has slowed further in some other major emerging economies. Supported by central bank actions and by positive policy developments in Europe, global financial conditions are more stimulative.  Commodity prices have remained at historically elevated levels, though temporary disruptions and persistent transportation bottlenecks have led to a record discount on Canadian heavy crude.

In Canada, the slowdown in the second half of 2012 was more pronounced than the Bank had anticipated, owing to weaker business investment and exports. Caution about high debt levels has begun to restrain household spending. The Bank expects economic growth to pick up through 2013. Business investment and exports are projected to rebound as foreign demand strengthens, uncertainty diminishes and the temporary factors that have weighed on resource sector activity are unwound. Nonetheless, exports should remain below their pre-recession peak until the second half of 2014 owing to a lower track for foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.  Consumption is expected to grow moderately and residential investment to decline further from historically high levels. The Bank expects trend growth in household credit to moderate further, with the debt-to-income ratio stabilizing near current levels.

Relative to the October MPR, Canadian economic activity is expected to be more restrained. Following an estimated 1.9 per cent in 2012, the economy is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2013 and 2.7 per cent in 2014. The Bank now expects the economy to reach full capacity in the second half of 2014, later than anticipated in the October MPR.

Core inflation has softened by more than the Bank had expected, with more muted price pressures across a wide range of goods and services, consistent with the unexpected increase in excess capacity. Total CPI inflation has also been lower than anticipated, reflecting developments in core inflation and weaker-than-projected gasoline prices. Total CPI inflation is expected to remain around 1 per cent in the near term before rising gradually, along with core inflation, to the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2014 as the economy returns to full capacity and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.

Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent.  While some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target, the more muted inflation outlook and the beginnings of a more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector suggest that the timing of any such withdrawal is less imminent than previously anticipated.

Information provided by: Bank of Canada
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/01/press-releases/fad-press-release-2013-01-23/

FRASER VALLEY REAL ESTATE SALES AT LOWER LEVELS IN 2012

(Surrey, BC) – Fraser Valley’s real estate market in 2012 will be remembered as the year buyers and sellers took a breather reflecting quieter sales, an average number of new listings and prices overall remaining flat.

The president of Fraser Valley’s Real Estate Board, Scott Olson, says, “The last half of 2012 was like a Mexican stand-off. Buyers kept hoping for greater price drops while sellers who didn’t have to sell just took their home off the market rather than lower their price.

“With the economy so stable, we’re not in a situation where people have to sell their home, so they’re not. It’s a very different market than in 2008 when listings were at an all-time high and sales were at historical lows.”

The Board’s Multiple Listing Service® processed 13,878 sales in 2012 compared to 15,529 the previous year, a decrease of 11 per cent, while the number of new listings remained about the same – 31,009 in 2012 compared to 31,592 in 2011. Over the year, the number of active listings for buyers to choose from dropped by 3 per cent going from 7,399 properties in December 2011 to 7,187 in December 2012.

Although 2012 ranks the second slowest year for sales in Fraser Valley since 2003, the volume of new listings finished in the middle of the pack. Scott Olson, says, “Inventory levels are down, which is a sign of a healthy market where insufficient demand leads to reduced supply. This is also keeping prices in most areas either flat or down only slightly.”

In December, the benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley was $539,000, an increase of 1.2 per cent compared to $532,700 in December 2011 and a decrease of 1.0 per cent compared to November.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in December was $296,400, a decrease of 2.2 per cent compared to the same month last year when it was $303,000 and down 0.8 per cent compared to November. The benchmark price of apartments in December was $200,100, an increase of 1.6 per cent compared to December 2011 when it was $196,900 and a decrease of 1.3 per cent compared to November.

Average prices year over year show detached homes down 3 per cent – $576,709 in 2012 compared to $594,402 in 2011. The average price of townhomes increased by 3.7 per cent, going from $316,259 in 2011 to $327,935 in 2012 and the average price of apartments decreased by 0.2 per cent going from $218,235 in 2011 to $217,843 in 2012.

Stats provided by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

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